President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range United States missiles against mainland Russian territory for the first time.
After hesitatingly providing ATACMS to Ukraine for use in its war with Russia, the Biden administration prevented the Ukrainian Armed Forces from using them to strike targets in the Russian mainland. That changed over the weekend when restrictions against their use were removed in response to North Korea allegedly sending troops to fight alongside Russia, officials told the New York Times.
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State Secretary Antony Blinken had previously vowed a “firm response” to the alleged deployment of North Korean soldiers along the front.
The move has potentially wide-ranging impacts on Russia and the U.S. and comes during Biden’s lame-duck period as the transition process into the Trump administration is underway.
The choice reportedly divided Biden’s advisers. The Biden administration has attempted to contain the conflict, fearful of escalation. The first time it authorized the Ukrainians to strike targets within Russia was in May when the Kremlin launched a cross-border assault into Kharkov Oblast. However, only short-range HIMARS missiles, with a range of roughly 50 miles, were cleared for use. ATACMS have a range of roughly 190 miles.
The prevailing fear that dominates the U.S. strategic calculus is that the clearing of strikes deep into Russia with U.S.-made weapons would cause Russia to retaliate in asymmetric ways. This includes espionage against U.S. targets or the supplying of advanced weaponry to U.S. adversaries, such as the Houthis in Yemen. There’s also the fear that Russia could use the opportunity to lessen restraint in hitting targets in Ukraine.
The release of restraints on ATACMS usage could also have limited effect, as Russia has moved most high-value targets out of their range. The U.S. also has limited supplies of the missiles – potential shortages were a reason why many U.S. military figures opposed its delivery to Ukraine.
Sunday saw another significant event in the war – one of Russia’s largest missile attacks so far, primarily targeting energy infrastructure as winter sets in. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia used 120 cruise and ballistic missiles along with 90 drones. The damage was significant enough that Ukrainian energy operator Ukrenergo announced nationwide blackouts to cope with the damage.
It’s unknown if the strike was related to Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with ATACMS.
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The sequence of events could complicate Trump’s plans for Ukraine – he repeatedly promised on the campaign trail to end the war as soon as taking office. His plans to do so haven’t been fully revealed, but his efforts to avoid alienating Zelensky and Putin suggest a settlement involving the giving up of Ukrainian territory.
Russia has regained the initiative across the front after Ukraine’s surprise assault into Kursk in August. The past weeks have seen some of the largest Russian advances into Donetsk in months, with Russian forces pushing into several key defensive cities.
