As Trump’s popularity plummets, House Democratic target emerges in red Indiana

CARMEL, Indiana — Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) should be coasting to reelection in the House district to which she was first elected in 2020, covering northern Indianapolis suburbs and part of central Indiana.

Instead, Spartz is facing what appears to be a surprisingly tough race against Democrat J.D. Ford, Indiana’s first openly gay state senator. It’s the kind of seat that can emerge on an out-party’s political target list in a wave election year with an unpopular president.

That’s just what seems to be playing out now ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with House Democrats needing to net three seats in the 435-member chamber to win a majority. President Donald Trump’s overall job approval has dropped to between 33% and 36%, depending on the poll. Trump’s curdling support is driven by economic dissatisfaction and the unpopular on-and-off Iran war, plus eroding support among independents and even among his MAGA base.

Indiana’s 5th Congressional District should be considered a safe GOP seat. In 2020, Trump beat his Democratic rival there 57% to 41%.  

Left: State Sen. J.D. Ford of Indiana (D); Right: Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN). (INDIANASENATEDEMOCRATS.ORG; HOUSE.GOV)

The Spartz-Ford race appears to be closer, though empirical data is limited. The lone public poll released by Ford’s supporters, with a built-in advantage for the Democrat, showed him trailing Spartz 48%–46% over the summer. And Spartz has beaten her past two Democratic opponents by almost 2-to-1 margins.

Still, Spartz could be a legitimate Democratic target and not just because of Trump’s sagging popularity. Spartz, 47, has had what critics have called an erratic public profile in her nearly six years as a House member. The Ukraine-born lawmaker, who moved to the United States at age 22, has expressed shifting stances on American support for that beleaguered nation in its defensive war against Russia.

In addition, she’s frequently threatened to use her leverage in the narrowly divided House to vote against what she calls profligate federal spending bills — only to buckle under pressure from House Republican leadership and toe the party line.

(Washington Examiner illustration)

Spartz has also faced multiple public accusations and ethics scrutiny from former staffers alleging a toxic, hostile workplace and verbal abuse. Staff turnover rates in her House office have, at times, been among the highest in Congress.

Then there’s her wavering about even trying to stay in Congress. In early 2023, Spartz announced she wouldn’t run for reelection in 2024, citing the heavy toll on her family of being in office. Yet in February 2024, she reversed her decision and announced she would run for reelection.

An unexpectedly close race?

Veteran Indiana Republicans and Democrats say the hostile national political environment for Republicans and Spartz’s record in Congress could make for a November upset.

Spartz brushed aside concerns of a tough race in a text to the Washington Examiner, citing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the far-left, two-time Democratic presidential candidate.

“I do not think a Bernie-groomed radical socialist is a great fit for Indiana-05, but no election should be taken for granted,” Spartz said. “As someone who does not accept the broken status quo, I’ve been targeted and underestimated by corrupt DC for a while, which is okay with me. I will always be the lobby for the people I represent.”

Whatever the political headwinds, Spartz has an advantage in having long represented a fundamentally conservative swath of Indiana, in the Hoosier State’s central region. She was a state senator for three years before winning her House seat. Before entering politics, Spartz had a successful business career in the United States. She started as a bank teller, earned her CPA, and later worked as an auditor and accountant in Big Four public accounting firms for Fortune 500 companies.

With those connections to central Indiana, her Democratic House rival will have to win over at least some Republican voters. Ford, 43, was elected to the state Senate in 2018 to a district covering several suburban counties and part of northwestern Indianapolis.

As for the House seat Ford is seeking, its lines have changed regularly over the decades. But the core has long been the old-money haven of Carmel, Indiana, and rapidly growing towns such as Fishers and Noblesville. 

Starting in 1983, the seat was captured by an upstart conservative with a penchant for wild (at the time) conspiracy theories, former Rep. Dan Burton. Before leading the House oversight committee through the Clinton era, Burton famously invited reporters to his D.C.-area home for a reenactment of what he claimed was the murder of Clinton aide Vince Foster (Foster died by suicide). Burton shot a watermelon with his handgun in an attempt to show Foster had been murdered.

Burton held the seat for 30 years. During that period and beyond, farmland surrounding Indianapolis has been steadily overtaken by mansions, traffic circles, biotech companies, and steady, profligate development. The old conservative base in the district has been overtaken by young professionals and grown increasingly more centrist.

Susan Brooks, a federal prosecutor during the George W. Bush administration and member of the GOP’s old guard, held the seat from 2013 to 2021.

The last Democratic candidate to come close to taking the seat was former state Rep. Christina Hale, who in 2020 lost to Spartz by about 17,000 votes. Hale attributed her loss in large part to Trump topping the ticket that cycle, which helped turn out more MAGA voters who show up only in presidential cycles. 

Republicans face a national threat of major drop-offs from presidential to midterm electorates. Indiana’s 5th District is emblematic of that likely voting trend in a state with divided football loyalties, on campuses at opposite ends of the state, Notre Dame and Indiana University. 

“J.D. clearly wins if MAGA voters stay home and everyone else gets out to vote. Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot to save [Spartz] this time, and legit polling reveals this to be a competitive match,” Hale said in an interview. “J.D. is the only one up on TV in this race, and IN-5 was watching during the IU and Notre Dame games this weekend.”

In 2020, 416,226 people voted in the House race. Two years later, the previous midterm election, that number dropped precipitously to 240,009 voters. Spartz handily beat her Democratic opponent that cycle, Jeannine Lee Lake, already a two-time House-race loser.

SPARTZ SAYS SHE DIDN’T EXTEND MASSIE ACCUSER’S CONTRACT OVER ‘CONCERNING’ CONDUCT

In 2024, Spartz easily beat Democratic candidate Deborah Pickett, as the total number of voters jumped back up to 359,204 in the presidential year. 

The difference for Ford heading into what should otherwise be a safe Republican race is money, name identification in the district, and experience campaigning routinely there. And an energized Democratic electorate, which already seems to be well outpacing the 2018 Democratic turnout, based on the early indicator of primary vote totals.

Tom LoBianco is editor and co-founder of 24sight News, based in Silver Spring, Maryland. He is the author of the biography about President Donald Trump’s first vice president, Piety & Power: Mike Pence and the Taking of the White House, and was an Indiana statehouse reporter for the Associated Press.

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