As South Korea struggles to reorient its government following an unexpected period of martial law, its northern neighbors seem to be enjoying their status as the more politically stable Korea.
State-affiliated newspapers have mocked the “pandemonium” in South Korea and lambasted impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s “fascist dictatorship against the people.”
Seeing an enemy falter can be satisfying, but Yoon’s failed attempt at autocratic control and subsequent fight to stay in power might stir some anxieties in the upper part of the Korean Peninsula.
While checks and balances within the South Korean constitution have allowed lawmakers and the general public to push back against abnormalities in their highest office, sovereign power is far more fragile in the wild world of Pyongyang.
The secretive nature of succession at the top rung of North Korean society means that no one outside its highest elites knows who could replace Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un if he resigns or dies in office.
The title “supreme leader” is not an actual office within the North Korean government. It is a term of honor for the top leader within the Workers’ Party of Korea, the sole ruling political party that controls the military, security forces, infrastructure, and economy.
Supreme leaders have only ever been selected hereditarily from male members of the Kim dynasty.
Kim Jong Un was assigned the title after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il. His father had been appointed after the death of his own father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung.
In this way, the Kim family operates similarly to a European monarchy — ruling by an atheistic equivalent to the divine right of kings. State propaganda has even developed a mythology surrounding the quasi-divine “Mount Paektu bloodline” from which they descend.
Kim Jong Un is believed to suffer from a variety of health problems related to his periods of morbid obesity, heavy smoking habits, and reported love of fine liquor.
He is also one of the most volatile and belligerent world leaders currently in power, with few allies and many enemies on the international stage that would love to see him deposed.
For these reasons, it is believed that succession plans are always in place, but the details of such a consequential transition are unknown.
North Korea’s only public princess
The most obvious candidate to succeed Kim Jong Un is his approximately 11-year-old daughter, Kim Ju Ae.
Ju Ae made her public debut in November 2022 when she accompanied her father to observe a missile test launch. Since then, she has made regular appearances alongside the supreme leader at state dinners, national ceremonies, field inspections, and military parades.
South Korean intelligence officials suspect that this sudden shift from obscurity to high-profile celebrity is part of a larger campaign to groom Ju Ae for supreme leadership.
There are many problems with this theory, however.
Most apparent, the Kim dynasty has always passed supreme power in a strictly patriarchal structure. Power does not necessarily transfer to the oldest son, but Kim daughters have never even been floated as possible candidates before.
Additionally, Ju Ae remains a child with little to no leadership.
Unlike many constitutional monarchs in Western nations, the Kim dynasty is intimately involved in national politics at all levels and retains autocratic control over its government. If her father were to die or step down within the next decade, it would leave the entire nation in the hands of an unproven young woman — a scenario ripe for power grabs or a coup d’état.
The Kim children behind the scenes
Kim Jong Un is believed to have two other children who have been kept hidden from both the North Korean public and the international intelligence community.
The oldest is believed to have been born in 2010, while the youngest is believed to have been born in 2017, making Ju Ae the middle child.
The exact age and gender of the two mystery Kim children are unknown. If Kim Jong Un had a male child, he would be the most logical successor to his father.
But the supreme leader has previously indicated in private meetings that he worries about the pressures a hereditary transfer of power would place on his children’s shoulders — a grim weight he experienced himself after the death of Kim Jong Il.
“I’m a father and a husband. And I have children. And I don’t want my children to carry the nuclear weapon on their back their whole life,” Kim Jong Un told then-U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2018, according to former CIA official Andrew Kim.
The lack of evidence for a male successor and Kim’s comments have led some to believe a transfer of power could move instead to a more experienced relative.
The Kim dynasty’s warrior woman
Kim Yo Jong, 37, is the sister of Kim Jong Un and has in recent years been elevated to a de facto second-in-command position.
She represented North Korea at the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea and was by the supreme leader’s side when he met with then-President Donald Trump in the Demilitarized Zone later that year.
Last year, Kim Yo Jong accompanied her brother on his trip to Russia, where they met with President Vladimir Putin — North Korea’s most valuable foreign ally.
She was also present throughout Putin’s reciprocal state visit to North Korea this past June.
Kim Yo Jong has also taken a leading role in foreign communications, regularly playing the role of rhetorical attack dog against perceived slights from the West.
In this capacity, she has personally threatened missile strikes and escalation to hot conflict against South Korea, the United States, and others.
She suffers a similar obstacle to power as Kim Ju Ae — a female supreme leader in control of North Korea would be unprecedented.
Unlike Ju Ae, however, Kim Yo Jong’s capabilities and experience in state management are well documented. She commands great respect from the men at the top of the hermit kingdom’s ranks.
A glass castle shatters from the top down
In a country as unstable and corrupt as North Korea, even the appointment of a Kim family heir does not guarantee a smooth transition of power.
The millions of common citizens outside Pyongyang live in abject poverty and face constant threats of starvation through poor resource management. They are also subject to intense political scrutiny. Human rights are virtually nonexistent, and those deemed out of step with national interests are routinely rounded up for hard labor or execution.
Escapees from North Korea report that while citizens are willing to go along with the regime to survive, a desperate desire for freedom exists behind their compliance.
But without meaningful access to weaponry and barely enough food to survive, an overthrow of the Kim dynasty is unlikely to come from the oppressed masses.
A cabal of wealthy elites exists in Pyongyang with significantly more autonomy and resources than the average peasant.
Among the most prominent of these power factions is the Korean People’s Army, which is highly exalted in North Korean state ideology and lavished with both material comforts and positions of power in the government following active service.
Many military personnel are currently getting their first taste of life outside North Korea through their deployment as mercenaries against Ukraine — a risky development when the country has a track record of diplomats defecting after becoming disillusioned seeing life overseas.
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The military is constitutionally controlled by the Workers’ Party of Korea, and any glitch in the transfer of ordained leadership from Kim Jong Un to his appointed successor could open a power vacuum to be exploited.
Ultimately, a hypothetical toppling of the Kim dynasty is mostly likely to come from the top rungs of North Korean society.
